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【竞选特辑】为什么川普能赢?离不开这5大原因!

王霸胆 2017-12-30 21:39:15

首先公布一个比新总统还重要的好消息




       

    

    Morning! As you’ve probably heard by now, Donald Trump has won the 2016 presidential election. On the morning of November 8th, most Americans woke up assuming that Hillary Clinton would be their next president. The New York Times gave Clinton a 91% chance of winning the presidency. However, by noon, the early poll results were telling a different story. By late afternoon, the NYT had revised its graphic to show that Donald Trump had a 95% chance of winning the presidency! What on earth happened? Let’s look at 5 reasons that helped Donald Trump become the next POTUS.

   早上好!相信你现在应该已经知道,唐纳德·川普赢下了2016年的总统大选吧。在美国当地时间11月8日早上,大多数美国人醒来时还仍然以为希拉里·克林顿会成为下一任的总统。《纽约时报》则给希拉里·克林顿预测出了高达91%的获胜概率。然而就在中午,最新投票结果给了他们另一个事实。在下午晚些时候,《纽约时报》已经把预测图图表倒转了,显示唐纳德·川普的总统竞选胜率达到了95%!到底发生了什么呢?让我们来看看5个让唐纳德·川普成为下一任美利坚合众国总统。

《纽约时报》预测出现大逆转

来自王霸胆的报道

#1 - He directed his message towards an angry, emotional audience

        他向愤怒、情绪化的民众直接传达讯息


From the very beginning of his campaign, Donald Trump made it clear at whom his message was targeted: angry, disenfranchised white voters who felt like the new globalist, multicultural America had left them behind. Recent election cycles had largely ignored these American 愤青, but Trump’s message of tightening borders and making America great again appealed to them. How did he connect with these voters? The answer is in reason number two.

在他竞选活动的最初,唐纳德·川普就将他的讯息受众定得非常明确:愤怒、感觉权利被剥夺的白人选民,认为新的全球化、充满多元文化的美国把他们抛弃了。近几年的几轮选举把这些美国愤青们大大忽视了,但是川普关于呼吁缩紧边境、复兴美国的讯息,直接传达给了他们。而他是怎么跟这些选民建立联系的呢?答案就在下面的第二个原因。


#2 - He embraced fringe media groups as an outsider

            他把自己塑造成不被看好的人,抓住了边缘新媒体


History will remember this election as the first time social media truly played a decisive role. Trump embraced Twitter as his main platform of communication. However, it was not his only platform. He also maintained close ties with several powerful “alt-right” new media groups — The Drudge Report and “Infowars”, hosted by inflammatory radio host Alex Jones. These platforms offered an entirely different spin on events portrayed by the mainstream media, and even portrayed this election as the “Second American Revolution”, which helped energize their base to turn out on Election Day. 

历史会证明在这次的大选中,第一次让社交媒体扮演了重要角色。川普抓住了推特这个平台作为他的主要传播平台。然而,也不仅仅是在他自己的平台宣传。他同时和几个强有力的“极右”新媒体保持紧密联系——如“The Drudge Report” ,以及 “Infowars”——这是由话语极具煽动性的电台主持人埃里克斯·琼斯所主持。这些平台散布着完全不同于主流媒体的思想倾向,甚至把这场选举描绘成是“第二次美国革命”,这一切也帮助刺激了他们的听众在大选当天出来参与投票。


Infowars主持人埃里克斯·琼斯



But why was Trump so confident, even in the face of polls showing him many points behind? Keep reading to learn the answer…

但是为什么川普甚至在全国民调显示他大幅落后,依然保持如此自信?继续读下去就知道答案…


#3 He relied on his instinct

        他相信他的直觉


Throughout his campaign, Donald Trump was notorious for his disregard of national polls. The polls constantly showed him trailing behind Hillary, but he trusted his instinct. He knew he was winning, largely because he knew the polls were not trustworthy. The polls were generally oversampled to make it seem like Hillary was winning, but in reality they were simply polling more Hillary supporters than Trump supporters. So it was no wonder that the NYT statistics were so off. They were based on fake data, which Trump understood. And unlike Hillary, he didn’t base his message on poll data. Instead…

整个竞选活动中,唐纳德·川普都因无视全国民调而出名。民调不断显示他落后于希拉里,但是他相信他的直觉。他知道他能赢,大致上说来是因为他知道民调没有参考价值。民调只能大致上从采样调查来表示希拉里领先,但是实际上只是因为参与调查的希拉里支持者,多过于川普的支持者而已。这也是为什么《纽约时报》的统计这么不靠谱。他们都是依据在假数据上,川普则心知肚明。不像希拉里,他没有把他的讯息建立在调查数据上,取而代之地…


#4 He made outrageous promises and controversial statements

      他做出骇人听闻的承诺,以及充满争议的声明。

        

Complete B.S. That wall will never get built. His supporters don’t really believe it will happen, either. So why did he say it? In short, it was an easy way to get valuable media attention. At the beginning of his campaign, the media was fascinated by his outlandish statements and promises. Compared with the blandness of Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and the other Republican candidates, Trump was a shining star. At one point, he even claimed he would ban all Muslims from entering America, but we all know he won’t. This was just an example of when …

完全就是胡说八道——那堵(阻挡外来墨西哥人的)墙他根本就不会去建。他的支持者其实也不相信这件事会成真。那为什么还要这么说呢?简而言之,这是一个轻易就能引起主要媒体注意的方法。在竞选最初,媒体痴迷于报道他那些稀奇古怪的观点和承诺。相对于乏味的杰布·布什,马尔科·鲁比奥还有其他共和党选举人来说,川普是一个闪耀的新星。曾有一次,他甚至说会禁止所有穆斯林进入美国,但是我们都知道他不会这么做。这也恰好是个例子,当…


#5 He said f*** that to political correctness

        他说,去他x的政治正确。

        

The final reason Trump won was that he largely ignored political correctness. America is dangerously close to losing its freedom of speech. Social Justice Warriors (SJWs) constantly berate people online (and in person) for being “racist, sexist, misogynistic, etc.” Trump was all three of them, and he endured an enormous outpouring of rage from liberals triggered by his comments. However, these same words appealed to his base, a “silent majority“ in America who aren’t inherently racist or sexist, yet aren’t comfortable with accepting the progressive’s liberal social agenda. Even during his “grab her pussy” scandal, his voter base stuck with him because they believed this was just “guy talk”, and they saw through the fake liberal outrage portrayed on the mainstream media. 

最后一个导致川普获胜的理由,就是他总是无视“政治正确”。美国正处在一个失去言论自由的边缘。社会正义战士们总是在网上(或针对个人地)去斥责他人“种族歧视、性别歧视、歧视女性”等等。而川普是以上三者的集合,他承担了自由主义者因为他的言论所激发的大量怒火。然而,这些话能引起了他的选民的共鸣,这些在美国的“沉默的大众”内心并不是种族歧视或性别歧视者,但也无法安然地接受这些进步人士的自由社会议程。就算在他那次说出“抓住她的私处”的“录音门”丑闻期间,选民们依然支持他,因为他们觉得这只是“男人之间私下对话”,他们看穿了那些假模假式的自由人士在主流媒体上的宣泄。



    There are many more reasons why Trump won this election. He was facing the most corrupt criminal politician to ever run for President, and with the assistance of Wikileaks, was able to expose her corruption on an almost daily basis. 

    还有许多理由来说明为什么川普赢得了这场选举。他面对的是一个史上总统人选中最腐败的犯罪政客,也因有维基泄密的“助攻”——几乎每天都在曝光她的腐败事实。



    Most importantly, Trump’s victory exposes huge gaps between voter groups in America. If America is to truly become great again, these groups will have to find ways to cooperate, otherwise our nation is doomed. 

    最重要的是,川普的胜利暴露了不同选民间的隔阂有多大。如果美国真的要复兴,这些不同团体真的要找出一个能让彼此团结合作的办法,要不然我们的国家就会陷入毁灭。


    What do you think of the election? Do you think America can “become great again“, or is the American experiment going the way of ancient Rome and the British Empire, slowly ceding its power to a rising Asia? Let’s discuss it in the comments!

    你怎么看这场选举的?你觉得美国可以“再次复兴”吗?还是说美国的新尝试是在走古罗马和大英帝国的老路,会渐渐失去力量,去成就一个冉冉升起的亚洲?让我们在留言里讨论吧!


    Have a great day!

    Peace out~



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